Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Malaysia's "breast" fixation
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Ramadan and my children
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Selamat menyambut bulan Ramadan
Monday, August 9, 2010
Notes on economic strategy
In the rich world, meanwhile, the record shows, again and again, that industrial policy doesn’t work. The hall of infamy is filled with costly failures like Minitel (a dead-end French national communications network long since overtaken by the internet) and British Leyland (a nationalised car company). However many new justifications are invented for the government to pick winners, and coddle losers, it will remain a bad old idea. Thanks to globalisation and the rise of the information economy, new ideas move to market faster than ever before. No bureaucrat could have predicted the success of Nestlé’s Nespresso coffee-capsule system—just as none foresaw that utility vehicles, vacuum cleaners and tufted carpets (to cite examples noted by Charles Schultze, an American opponent of state planning) would have been some of America’s fastest-growing industries in the 1970s. Officials ignore the potential for innovation in consumer products or services and get seduced by the hype of voguish high-tech sectors.
The universal race to create green jobs is the latest example. Led by China and America, support for green tech is rapidly becoming one of the biggest industrial-policy efforts ever. Spain, blinded by visions of a solar future, subsidised the industry so lavishly that in 2008 the country accounted for two-fifths of the world’s new solar-power installations by wattage. This week it slashed its subsidies, but still has a bill of billions.
Not all such money is wasted, of course. The internet and the microwave oven came out of government-led research; the stranger stuff that governments do can prove surprisingly successful. A few governments, such as America’s and Israel’s, have contributed usefully to the early development of venture-capital networks. Some advocates of industrial policy argue that the government, like a pharmaceutical company or a seed-capital firm, should simply increase the number of its bets in order to raise its hit rate. But that is a cavalier way to behave with taxpayers’ money. And the public funds have an odd habit of flowing towards politically connected projects.
Fortunately, there are now some powerful constraints on governments’ ability to meddle. In an age of austerity they can ill afford to lavish money on extravagant industrial projects. And the European Union’s competition rules place some limits on the ability to do special favours for particular firms.
That points to the first of three ideas that should guide a more sensible approach to securing the jobs of the future.
- Straightforward steps to improve the environment for business—less red tape, more flexible labour markets, simpler tax and bankruptcy regimes—will be more effective than handouts to favoured firms or sectors. Europeans ought to be seeking to strengthen the rules of their single market rather than pushing to dilute them; a long-overdue single European patent process would be a good start. Competition will do far more for jobs than coddling.
- Second, governments should invest in the infrastructure that supports innovation, from modernised electricity grids (a smarter way to help green energy) to basic research and university education. The current fashion for raising barriers to the inflows of talented researchers and entrepreneurs hardly helps.
- Third, rather than the failed policy of picking winners, governments should encourage winners to emerge by themselves, for example through the sort of incentive prizes that are growing increasingly popular.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Sime Buffeting
Rather, it's about the swirls and eddies surrounding the Malaysian Insider "scoop" on Sime's purported RM2.5 billion prospective loss provisioning.
Sime quickly came up with an official statement that it expects to close its current financial year in the black.
As Rocky's Bru pointed out here, the carnage on Sime's market capitalisation had already happened by the time Sime responded.
I have two things to say.
Reportage carnage
The capital market lives by rules. Though many market players live on edge on a testosterone-fueled hubris by skirting the grey areas of regulation, the rules are there nonetheless.
Were it otherwise the level of trading violence in capital markets would have killed the modern economy aeons ago.
So, here we have an Internet-based news portal who jumped the proverbial gun with the resulting effect that RM1,000,000,000 of wealth disappeared from those who had standing investments in Sime at Bursa Malaysia.
Inasmuch as shocking management ineptitude and corrupt practices may have caused Sime's current financial malaise and, needs to be brought to book, so too, should unedifying "scoops" that may not be supported by cold hard facts be held to account by the relevant authorities.
I would go further to say that even if the "scoop" is supported by cold hard facts it may still transgress the capital market rules and other laws of Malaysia that are designed to guard against precisely this type of mischief, where disclosure of "price sensitive information" is required to be made on a timely basis and, with proper procedures.
Losses kills bosses
Sime is a publicly-listed company. It is a Government-linked Company. It is an ancient company. It is a multinational company, one of the few in Malaysia.
Sime's current problems finds a good metaphor in the wonderful Selangan Batu, tropical timber tree that has lived for a glorious 100 years to achieve and straight and unbent height of 50 metres with a girth of 20 metres only to find itself at the mercy of a logger. Snuffed out with nary a blink of an eye.
I am fond of the Latin phrase, quis custodes ipsos custodes (who will guard the guards themselves).
The Malay equivalent is more rustic and appealing, pagar makan padi, which pretty much carry the same connotation.
Seppuku and falling on one's own sword
A Voice has renewed his call for the Chairman of Sime to resign. The call is extended to the entire Sime board. The call, if you read his previous posts on the matter, is categorically extended to specific managers within Sime.
Perhaps it is time that A Voice's voice be heard (pun intended).
For, if you have watched David Attenborough's seminal documentary, A Private Life of Plants, you will have seen one chapter where Attenborough showed in time-delayed fashion how a raging fire decimated forests and fields as Nature's way to regenerate.
The fire is now raging in Sime. Let a new group of directors and, selected managers tend to the charred grounds and tend to the young shoots that will, as surely as the Sun will rise, grow and thrive.
That is as Nature and good corporate governance and ethical conduct (and A Voice) demands.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Chinese Babel
THE first reports of protests on behalf of the Cantonese language in China that I saw, about two weeks ago, I dismissed. Language has signally failed to become a major issue in China. This is despite the fact that the country is—it needs to be said again and again until people stop referring to "dialects"—hugely mutlilingual. Mandarin Chinese is a language, and so is Yue (Cantonese), so is Wu (Shanghaiese) and so are the others (Hakka, Northern and Southern Min, etc.) Speakers of two of these various languages simply can't have a proper conversation with each other in their home languages. (There are, of course, dialects of Mandarin, Yue and so forth, and these are by and large mutually comprehensible.)
Mandarin complicates this picture because it is the biggest, it is learned in schools around the country, is the official language, and is the basis of the writing system. The writing system is not a pan-dialectal written form that ties all varieties of Chinese together, as many believe. The character 我 is pronounced wǒ in Mandarin, ngóh in Cantonese/Yue, góa in Taiwanese, ngú in Shanghainese, ǎ in Gan, and so on; it means "I" in all those languages. But this doesn't mean written Chinese is pan-dialectal. To write Cantonese so it can properly be read out and accepted as real Cantonese requires different character order, special characters, sometimes Roman letters, and quite a bit of ingenuity, since it there is no standard way of doing so (though more Cantonese are trying).
Meanwhile many Chinese really do believe that they speak dialects of a single thing called Chinese, which they all write the same way—even if, to use a European analogy, the Chinese language family resembles not British vs. American vs. Irish English, but something more like English vs. Frisian vs. German. And they persist in believing in their linguistic unity probably because the Chinese really do see themselves as part of a single Han people. (This does not include non-Han minorities like Tibetans and Uighurs, and speakers of Miao-Yiao and so forth in the south.) Language has rarely disturbed national unity, as it has in so many places, whether Spain or Turkey or Belgium. So when I saw the second report (video) of such protests—admittedly small—in the past few weeks, I took note. Language policy (and language resentment) has been the dog that hasn't barked in China. Now it has barked meekly—twice. Both protests have been quite small. But this situation should be an interesting one to keep an eye on.