Tuesday, January 20, 2009

NPL watch

The nerves are getting frayed. It's the nail-biting time. If you look at the chart that I extracted from here, you will see that the NPL trends up to November 2008 looks pretty good. 

This is the type of chart that is hazardous for Malaysian economic managers to rely on since there is a 2-month lag. The reason is simply because if one were to look away from the charts into the current situation, the sense would have to be that the NPLs are likely to climb up from December 2008 and creep further upwards as 2009 progresses. There are plenty of anecdotal evidence pointing towards this scenario. 

The question is, will the economic stabilisation package or stimulus package do the trick to prevent such trends from worsening? Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has expressed misgivings. I suspect many more will share the same sentiment.

The point is that Malaysia's economic managers must manage expectations and air policy scenarios to a wider plebescite than the bunch of fellas in the so-called Economic Council whose best shot seems to be a stimulus package for their pet sector, construction and property development. 

Malaysia has a larger talent pool of economic managers than that. Why all the hush-hush? Could it possibly be due to fear of being exposed as having been ignorant about the economic scenarios and trends?


Mat Cendana said...

Gotta admit, I'm a bit lost when this kind of charts come in. Left to me, I might even conclude "NPL is getting better managed" since the graph seems to indicate "reduction". I'm glad there are people who can interpret and extract more signs from that chart.

What's worrying for the layman like me are the statements from people in the Finance Ministry voicing "confidence" in Malaysia weathering the economic turmoil.

From past records, when they merely express this without mentioning some gameplan, it might mean "we don't know actually... just *hoping* that something lcuky might strike us..."

I'm glad for the existence of blogs. Nowadays, you just cannot `kencing' about something and then try to change the subject before experts have time to scrutinise and analyse what they had claimed

We can now pull them back to the table and force them to explain *again*. Or to *review* when the previous one was obviously crap.

We have the chance to finetune things actually, should the government honestly welcome feedback and the opinions of others about some economic and financial matter. And it'll not have to spend money for many of these analyses for the people who do them are doing so for the love of the field!

de minimis said...

Bro Mat C

We always hope that things will be managed properly by the people with whom we have entrusted our tax money. Oftentimes, more often than not, these people misapprehend that we are living under Malaysian skies at their pleasure! Hopefully, such delusionary thinking will disappear soon. Otherwise my good brother Sak will go thermonuclear soon (as you can see in his writings). Maybe that won't be a bad thing at all.

Anonymous said...

These r the qualitas numero uno for doubting those numbers coming out from these 'statisticians'.

1) Unacceptable time lapse for data announcement; normally 2 - 4 months. In the case of Auditor Generals report - 2 yrs behind.

2) Unprofessional 'interpretation' of data presented. Case in point as presented in the chart mentioned.

Sometime, one just have to ponder whether these 'professionals' r nincompoops, badly trained, or just been arm-twisted!