Wag the dog

In the 1997 movie from which this post borrows its title, Robert de Niro played a Washington spin doctor who attempts to distract the electorate from a U.S. presidential sex scandal. de Niro's character retains the services of a Hollywood movie producer, played by Dustin Hoffman, to fabricate a fake war with Albania.

That movie was a perfect parody of the Machiavellian schemes concocted by ruling elites throughout the world. To lift sagging popularity create a national crisis. There is no equivalent to a national crisis in rallying the people to flag-waving patriotism.

George H.W. Bush (the father) was at the height of his popularity when he initiated the righteous war against Iraq as retaliation for Saddam Hussein's invasion of a hapless Kuwait. But Bush senior drowned when seeking re-election in 1992 against Bill "It's the economy, stupid" Clinton. By then echoes of the heroic Iraq War I had faded. Bush senior had lost his halo.

George W. Bush (the son) had advisers that learnt from that sad debacle. In a series of escalating crises, starting from 9/11 to the Afghan war to Iraq War II, Bush junior rode crisis after crisis to sustain his desperation to remain President. Despite Michael Moore's attempts to demonise him. Despite glaring evidence ex post facto (after the fact), that there were no weapons of mass destruction there were enough numbers in the electorate who believed that for so long as the U.S. nation was at war, any war, they needed to unite under the Star Spangled Banner and, support the incumbent. The Democratic challenger, John Kerry, never had a chance, even with all the Heinz ketchup money.

Crisis signals opportunity

John F. Kennedy has been quoted as saying, When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. 

How true!

In the current economic turmoil, there are two examples of leaders whose sagging popularity is on the mend, just as they are perceived to have exercised true leadership in economic crisis management.

Gordon Brown

As recently as a month ago, the current British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, was being villified by the entire British Isles, or so, it would have seemed at the time. He was accused of have done a Brutus by turning on Tony Blair during Blair's waning days. He was even accused of being dour and dull in contrast to the effervescent and affable Blair. 

But, before Pak Lah rushes to call Brown to commiserate, I have to say that Brown's popularity is rising again like a Golden Phoenix from the ashes. The reason? The recapitalization package that Brown and his finance minister, Alistair Darling, announced last Wednesday (put together with Bank of England officials over a late-night take-out dinner of Indian curry) that is seen to have put Britain ahead of the U.S. in dealing with the economic crisis.

Kevin Rudd

The sheen was in the process of being rubbed off Rudd and his ultra-liberal (Pardon the pun. You would understand the pun if you know that Rudd's party's greatest nemesis is the Liberal Party. Liberal. Get it? No?) policies, like apologising to the Aboriginal community, putting bald ex-rock band Midnight Oil lead singer, Peter Garrett, as Minister for the Environment, and so on.

But, before Pak Lah dials Rudd's number to console him, I have also got to say that Rudd's popularity is also on the mend. This morning (Monday October 13) the Australian stock market rebounded in response to Rudd's weekend announcement that all deposits in Australian financial institutions would be guaranteed for three years. The government also doubled to $8 billion the funds available to improve liquidity in financial markets.

Leadership indicia

Brown and Rudd. Heroic in the wake of the Wall Street debacle. Now transitory heroes in the eyes of their supporters and critics in the face of economic crisis.

Any lessons for Malaysia's leaders?

Judging from his preternatural disposition for high dramatics, current Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, would understand the point of this blog post. Anwar would highlight the terrible crisis that has engulfed the Western economies. He would point to the grave deficiencies that exist in the Malaysian economy. He would cite categorically the high incidence of rent-seeking behaviour and cronyism that has robbed the Malaysian economy of its competitiveness. And, I believe that he is in the process of saying pretty much all this in Parliament inasmuch as he has said so over the weekend. 

This taps right into the psyche of the nervous Malaysian middle-class and, eventually, the working class.

Judging from his preternatural disposition for the bland and the dull, Prime Minister-designate

Najib Razak, may not get the point. Najib is likely to adopt a position that the Malaysian economy recorded excellent results in the first two quarters of 2008, as of July the Malaysia's trade surplus grew by several percentage points compared to last year, and drone on and drone on. A quick check on the calendar would show that we are in the middle of October and, by the way, some time after July there was the small matter of Wall Street having collapsed taking down many financial institutions which, is in the process of spilling over into the real economy and, given the time-lag, many bad things will reach Malaysian shores. 

The JFK piece of wisdom only works if it resonates with the correct leader. Otherwise, there is no resonance. Apart from Anwar, are there any other takers? Anyone?